Impacto de las actividades antropogénicas en la cobertura del suelo de la cuenca del río Quilichao (Colombia): análisis y proyecciones para 2030 y 2050
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17561/at.31.9131Palabras clave:
Cobertura de suelos, Cultivo, Desarrollo sostenible, Cuenca hidrográficaResumen
El crecimiento demográfico y actividades como la urbanización, minería y agricultura han provocado cambios significativos en el uso y cobertura del suelo (LULC) en la cuenca del río Quilichao, en Cauca, Colombia. Para evaluar y predecir estos cambios, se aplicaron tecnologías geoespaciales durante el periodo 2018-2021. Las proyecciones para los años 2030 y 2050 se realizaron utilizando el modelo de autómatas celulares y redes neuronales artificiales (CA-ANN) del complemento MOLUSCE de QGIS. Los mapas LULC mostraron una alta precisión, con coeficientes Kappa superiores a 0,97. Entre 2019 y 2050, se proyecta una disminución de 488.65 ha de vegetación densa y un aumento de 638,16 ha en cultivos, tendencia que se espera continúe con un incremento adicional de 330,21 ha de cultivos para 2030 y 435,42 ha para 2050. Este análisis ofrece una herramienta crucial para la formulación de políticas orientadas al desarrollo sostenible y la gestión efectiva del ecosistema.
Descargas
Referencias
Abijith, Devanantham; Saravanan, Subbarayan. 2022: Assessment of land use and land cover change detection and prediction using remote sensing and CA Markov in the northern coastal districts of Tamil Nadu, India. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 29, 86055- 86067. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15782-6
Alam, Nasibul; Saha, Swati; Gupta, Srimanta; Chakraborty, Subha. 2021: Prediction modelling of riverine landscape dynamics in the context of sustainable management of floodplain: a geospatial approach. Annals of GIS, 27(3), 299-314. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475683.2020.1870558
Anand, Vicky; Oinam, Bakimchandra. 2020: Future land use land cover prediction with special emphasis on urbanization and wetlands. Remote Sens Lett, 11(3), 225-234. https://doi.org/10.108 0/2150704X.2019.1704304
Anthony, Tobore; Shohan, Ahmed Ali A; Oludare, Adedeji; Alsulamy, Saleh; Al Kafy, Abdulla; Khedher, Khaled Mohamed. 2024: Spatial analysis of land cover changes for detecting environmental degradation and promoting sustainability. Kuwait Journal of Science, 51(2), 100197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjs.2024.100197
Arias-Arévalo, Paola; Pacheco-Valdés, Nicol. 2022: Implementación de pagos por servicios ambientales en la Cuenca del río Cali, Colombia: una mirada desde los sistemas socioecológicos. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 61(2), e256251. https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.256251
Arsanjani, Jamal Jokar; Kainz, Wolfgang; Mousivand, Alireza J. 2011: Tracking dynamic land-use change using spatially explicit Markov chain based on cellular automata: the case of Tehran. International Journal of Image and Data Fusion, 2(4), 329-345. https://doi.org/10.1080/19479832.2011.605397
Baghel, Shreeya; Kothari, Mukesh Kumar; Tripathi, Manish Prasad; Singh, Pradeep Kumar; Bhakar, Sita Ram; Dave, Vikramaditya; Jain, Shailendra Kumar. 2024: Spatiotemporal LULC change detection and future prediction for the Mand catchment using MOLUSCE tool. Environmental Earth Sciences, 83(2), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-11381-5
Basto-Monsalve, Mary Brigén; Pascuas-Rengifo, Edwar; Fontalvo-Buelvas, Juan Camilo. 2023: Evaluación de la resiliencia ecosistémica del área protegida Parque Nacional Natural Alto Fragua Indi Wasi en Caquetá, Colombia. Revista Científica del Amazonas, 6(12), 5-18. https://doi.org/10.34069/RA/2023.12.01
Chen, Yu; Li, Xia; Liu, Xia; Ai, Bo; Li, Sheng. 2016: Capturing the varying effects of driving forces over time for the simulation of urban growth by using survival analysis and cellular automata. Landscape and Urban Planning, 152, 59-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.03.011
DANE (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). 2016: Proyecciones demográficas para el municipio de Santander de Quilichao. Bogotá (Colombia), DANE. https://www.dane.gov.co
DANE (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). 2023: Proyecciones de población municipal por área (urbana y rural) 2018-2035. Bogotá (Colombia), DANE. https://www.dane.gov.co
Da Silva, C. M.; Filho, J. P. 2025: Variaciones en el uso y cobertura del suelo en una región del Cerrado brasileño: un estudio de caso de la cuenca del río Farinha, MA y el Parque Nacional Chapada das Mesas. Agua y Territorio / Water and Landscape, 25, 409-420. https://doi.org/10.17561/at.25.8285
DNP (Departamento Nacional de Planeación). 2012: Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PNACC). Bogotá, (Colombia), IDEAM, DNP, MADS, UNGRD. https://www.minambiente.gov.co/cambio-climatico-y-gestion-del-riesgo/plan-nacional-de-adaptacion-al-cambio-climatico/
Drenkhan, Fabian; Castro-Salvador, Sofía. 2023: Una aproximación hacia la seguridad hídrica en los Andes tropicales: desafíos y perspectivas. Revista Kawsaypacha: Sociedad y Medio Ambiente, 12, A006. https://doi.org/10.18800/kawsaypacha.202302.A006
EMQUILICHAO (Empresa de Servicios Públicos de Santander de Quilichao). 2021: Acueductos rurales del municipio de Santander de Quilichao. Santander de Quilichao (Colombia), Empresa de Servicios Públicos de Santander de Quilichao.
Firozjaei, Mohammad Karimi; Sedighi, Amir; Firozjaei, Hamzeh Karimi; Kiavarz, Majid; Homaee, Mehdi; Arsanjani, Jamal Jokar; Makki, Mohsen; Naimi, Babak; Alavipanah, Seyed Kazem. 2021: A historical and future impact assessment of mining activities on surface biophysical characteristics change: a remote sensing-based approach. Ecological Indicators, 122, 107264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107264
Gazi, Amir Ali; Mondal, Ismail. 2018: Urban Heat Island and its effect on dweller of Kolkata Metropolitan area using geospatial techniques. International Journal of Computer Sciences and Engineering, 6(10), 778-794. https://doi.org/10.26438/ijcse/v6i10.741753
Hamad, Rahel; Balzter, Heiko; Kolo, Kamal. 2018: Predicting land use/land cover changes using a CA-Markov model under two different scenarios. Sustainability, 10(10), 3421. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103421
Hamad, Rahel; Kolo, Kamal; Balzter, Heiko. 2018: Land cover changes induced by demining operations in Halgurd-Sakran National Park in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Sustainability, 10(7), 2442. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072422
Hu, Zhan; Lo, Chi P. 2007: Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers. Environment and Urban Systems, 31(6), 667-688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2006.11.001
Kafy, Abdulla Al; Faisal, Abdullah Al; Sikdar, Soumik; Hasan, Mohammad Mohnudul; Rahman, Mahbubur; Hasan Khan, Mohammad Hasib; Islam, Rahatul. 2019: Impact of LULC changes on LST in Rajshahi district of Bangladesh: a remote sensing approach. Journal of Geographical Studies, 3(1),11-23. https://doi.org/10.21523/gcj5.19030102
Kamaraj, Manikandan; Rangarajan, Sathyanathan. 2022: Predicting the future land use and land cover changes for Bhavani basin, Tamil Nadu, India, using QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 29, 86337-86348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356- 021-17904-6
Karra, Krishna; Kontgis, Caitlin; Statman-Weil, Zoe; Mazzariello, Joseph C.; Mathis, Mark; Brumby, Steven P. 2021: Global land use / land cover with Sentinel 2 and deep learning. IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium IGARSS, 4704-4707, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS47720.2021.9553499
Kumar, Mithun; Mondal, Ismail; Pham, Quoc Bao. 2021: Monitoring Forest landcover changes in the Eastern Sundarban of Bangladesh from 1989 to 2019. Acta Geophys, 69, 561-577. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00551-3
Li, Xia; Lin, Jun; Chen, Yu; Liu, Xia; Ai, Bo. 2013: Calibrating cellular automata based on landscape metrics by using genetic algorithms. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 27(3), 594-613. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.20 12.698391
Li, Xia; Yeh, Anthony Gar-On. 2002: Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 16(4), 323-343. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810210137004
Liu, Linun; Liang, Youjia; Hashimoto, Shizuka. 2020: Integrated assessment of land-use/ coverage changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Gansu Province, northwest China: implications for sustainable development goals. Sustainability Science, 15, 297-314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00758-w
Majumder, Atin; Das, Susanta; Bora, Sony; Mandal, Agniva. 2023: Monitoring of Natural Resources Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology Under Changing Climate Scenario, in Pande, Chaitanya, B.; Moharir, Kanak N.; Negm, Abdelazim (Eds.), Climate change impacts in India. Cham (Switzerland), Springer, 173-188. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42056-6_8
MADS (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible). 2017: Política nacional de cambio climático. https://www.minambiente.gov.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/9.-Politica-Nacional-de-Cambio-Climatico.pdf
MADS (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible). 2022: Aprobado un plan que ayudará a obtener las metas climáticas de Colombia. https://www.minambiente.gov.co/aprobado-un-plan-que-ayudara-a-obtener-las-metas-climaticas-de-colombia
Mfwango, Lusajo Henry; Kisiki, Clarance Paul; Ayenew, Tenalem; Mahoo, Henry F. 2022: The impact of land use/cover change on surface runoff at Kibungo sub-catchment of Upper Ruvu catchment in Tanzania. Environmental Challenges, 7, 100466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100466
Mulatu, Kassahun; Hundera, Kitesa; Senbeta, Feyera. 2024: Analysis of land use/ land cover changes and landscape fragmentation in the Baro-Akobo Basin, Southwestern Ethiopia. Heliyon, 10(7), e28378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024. e28378
Munthali, Maggie Grace; Davis, Nerhene; Adeola, Abiodun M.; Botai, Joel O.; Kamwi, Jonathan M.; Chisale, Harld L. W.; Orimoogunje, Oluwafemi O. I. 2019: Local perception of drivers of land-use and land-cover change dynamics across Dedza district, Central Malawi region. Sustainability, 11(3), 832. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030832
Mwanga, Eliafie; Shaibu, Abdul Ganiyu; Issaka, Zakaria. 2024: Assessing the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the surface runoff downstream of an ungauged Bontanga watershed in Northern Ghana. Water Practice and Technology, 19(4), 1348-1364. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2024.061
Ordoñez, C. A.; Silva, D. 2023: Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Change Detection, and Simulation Analysis of Manila Bay’s Dolomite Mining Site in Cebu, Philippines Using Sentinel-2 Satellite. Inter¬national Journal of Geoinformatics, 19(5), 87-103. https://doi.org/10.52939/ijg.v19i5.2667
Pholsena, Vatthana. 2018: Mobility, familiarity and prejudice: living together in a multiethnic town in southern Laos. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 43(10), 1872-1889. https://doi.org/10.1080/014198 70.2018.1546022
Prodanovic, Veljko; Bach, Peter M.; Stojkovic, Milan. 2024: Urban nature-based solutions planning for biodiversity outcomes: human, ecological, and artificial intelligence perspectives. Urban Ecosyst, 27, 1795-1806. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-024-01558-6
Roy, Parth Sarathi; Ramachandran, Reshma M.; Paul, Oscar; Thakur, Praveen K.; Ravan, Shirish; Dev Behera, Mukunda; Sarangi, Chandan; Kanawade, Vijay P. 2022: Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes - a review on its environmental consequences and climate change. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 50(8), 1615-1640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-022-01569-w
Sangha, Kamaljit K.; Maynard, Simone; Pearson, Jasmine; Dobriyal, Pariva; Badola, Ruchi; Hussain, Syed Ainul. 2019: Recognising the role of local and Indigenous communities in managing natural resources for the greater public benefit: case studies from Asia and Oceania region. Ecosystem Services 39, 100991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100991
Santhosh, Lakkur Gurunarayan; Shilpa, Devanahalli Nagaraj. 2023: Assessment of LULC change dynamics and its relationship with LST and spectral indices in a rural area of Bengaluru district, Karnataka India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environ¬ment, 29,100886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100886
Saputra, Muhammad Heru; Lee, Hwan Soon. 2019: Prediction of land use and land cover changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, using an artificial-neural-network-based cellular automaton. Sustainability, 11(11), 3024. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113024
Schmera, Dénes; Boschi, Cristina; Baur, Bruno. 2023: The type of forest edge shapes snail assemblages at forest–pasture transitions. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 16761. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43758-8
Tagliari, Mario M.; Bogoni, Juliano A.; Blanco, Graziela D.; Cruz, Aline P.; Peroni, Nivaldo. 2023: Disrupting a socio-ecological system: could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change? Climatic Change, 176(2), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03477-x
Uddin, Md Shihb; Mahalder, Badal; Mahalder, Debabrate. 2023: Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Future Predictions Using CA-ANN Simulation for Gazipur City Corpo¬ration, Bangladesh. Sustainability, 15(16), 12329. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612329
Verburg, Peter Herman; Van De Steeg, Jan; Veldkamp, Arend; Willemen, Lenny. 2009: From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(3), 1327-1335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.08.005
Yang, Qiong; Li, Xia; Shi, Xia. 2008: Cellular automata for simulating land use changes based on support vector machines. Computers & Geosciences, 34(6), 592-602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.08.003
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Universidad de Jaén
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
© Universidad de Jaén
Los originales publicados en las ediciones impresa y electrónica de esta Revista son propiedad de la Universidad de Jaén siendo necesario citar la procedencia en cualquier reproducción parcial o total.
Salvo indicación contraria, todos los contenidos de la edición electrónica se distribuyen bajo una licencia de uso y distribución “Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0 España” (CC-by). Puede consultar desde aquí la versión informativa y el texto legal de la licencia. Esta circunstancia ha de hacerse constar expresamente de esta forma cuando sea necesario.
